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The GBP/USD pair has gained nearly 300 pips over the past two weeks; however, will the British currency continue to rise? It is worth noting that we consider the latest surge in the pair entirely justified "for past achievements." In other words, the U.S. dollar is extracting maximum value from every event in 2026, and its rise is not always fully warranted. Additionally, there is still a year-long flat on higher timeframes, so any movement within the sideways channel of 1.3150-1.3780 is inherently expected and logical. Thus, the recent uptick of the British pound does not surprise us.
This week, all market attention will turn to two events. First, the U.S. inflation report for June will be released today. Second, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech to the U.S. Congress. Importantly, the speech will take place the day after the inflation data is released, allowing Warsh to use the freshest information in his remarks. Recall that the main intrigue for the market remains how the Fed will act in 2026. Last month, Warsh indicated that the current inflation numbers in the U.S. are unacceptable, which many market participants interpreted as a promise to raise the key interest rate multiple times. We do not believe that monetary policy will be tightened without options, but we also note that everything will depend on inflation.
At the beginning of July, we learned that the U.S. labor market is slowing again, so a simultaneous drop in inflation will allow the Fed to breathe a little easier, as they can expect a slowdown without aggressive monetary measures. However, if inflation slows only gradually or not at all, the Fed will have to conduct at least one or two rate hikes. Thus, on Wednesday, Kevin Warsh will already have the June inflation data available, and we will be able to gauge from his speech whether the American central bank expects a gradual slowdown in the inflation rate against the backdrop of falling oil and gas prices.
If Warsh continues to point out that current inflation levels are unacceptable and the actual figures show unsatisfactory dynamics for June, the Fed will likely prepare for a tightening. Will the U.S. dollar rise in this case? Recall that the market has effectively already priced in a rate hike from the Fed following the June meeting. Thus, we do not expect any significant rise in the American currency in any case. However, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the U.S. dollar may be in demand, which, for the GBP/USD pair, would imply a legitimate downward correction.
We would not consider other events at this time. The market is no longer paying close attention to geopolitics, and several inconsequential reports are due to be published in the UK. We still believe that the current flat is "the head of all," so the growth of the British currency will continue.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days as of July 14 is 60 pips, which is characterized as "medium-low." On Tuesday, July 14, we expect the pair to move within the range limited by levels 1.3321 and 1.3441. The upper channel of linear regression points downward, indicating the continuation of a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory twice and formed two bullish divergences, warning of a possible end to the downward trend. However, the indicator has now formed a bearish divergence.
The GBP/USD pair maintains a downward trend, presumed to be a correction within a broader upward trend, as is clearly evident on the daily or weekly timeframe. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, first geopolitics and then the Fed's hawkish stance have provided strong support for the U.S. currency. When the price is below the moving average, consider short positions targeting 1.3367 and 1.3306. Above the moving average, long positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3489 could be relevant. Bears are currently extremely strong for no visible reason.
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