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The EUR/USD currency pair moved higher on Wednesday, allowing it to exit the sideways channel at 1.1377-1.1461 for the first time in three weeks. Thus, the flat may be over, and the euro now has the opportunity to establish its trend after a long pause. Recall that the British pound has shown significant growth over the past three weeks, which we consider entirely justifiable. In recent months, the market has stopped paying attention to fundamentals, geopolitics, and macroeconomics, leading to the dollar's unjustified rise. However, this could not continue indefinitely. In the long term, the bullish trends for both the euro and the pound remain relevant, so any decline is viewed as a correction on the higher timeframes. The euro still struggles with any growth, but all great things start small. The level of 1.1461 now acts as support for the euro. Yesterday, the U.S. producer price index confirmed the slowdown in overall inflation, reducing the likelihood of a near-term increase in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate.
On the 5-minute timeframe, only one trading signal was formed on Wednesday, unfortunately at the very end of the movement. Toward the end of the day, the pair broke through the area of 1.1461-1.1466, which can be considered the upper boundary of the sideways channel. Thus, upward movement may continue today, giving traders a great area to trade both long and short.
On the hourly timeframe, both trend lines have been broken and are no longer relevant. The flat may be over, as the pair has exceeded 1.1461. Considering all events and movements in the market in recent months, we believe the euro should continue to rise. In the long term, we also expect upward movement.
On Thursday, novice traders may open short positions targeting the 1.1363-1.1377 range if price consolidates below the 1.1461-1.1466 area. Long positions can be maintained with a target of 1.1527-1.1531, as the price has consolidated above the area of 1.1461-1.1466.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to watch include 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1363-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1466, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, and 1.1745-1.1754. On Thursday, there are no significant publications planned in the European Union, while the U.S. will release reports on retail sales and unemployment claims. We do not expect a strong market reaction to these reports.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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