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Today, on Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark of the US market, is in a bullish consolidation amid the risk of further escalation between the US and Iran.
The US military has continued airstrikes on Iran for six consecutive nights, including an attack on an empty oil tanker bound for Kharg Island, part of a renewed naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran, in turn, is actively striking US military bases in the region, heightening fears of a return to full?scale war and keeping geopolitical risk levels elevated. This factor continues to have a significant impact on the oil market.
In Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, local authorities reported strikes on civilian infrastructure, including power plants and railway stations. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to expand the conflict by attacking additional regional energy supply routes. Reuters also reports that Iran has urged Yemeni Houthi groups to be ready to cut an oil pipeline in the Red Sea, creating another serious threat to global energy supplies.
These events, combined with reduced maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, provide additional support for oil prices and confirm the likelihood of further upside. However, before opening new long positions, it is prudent to wait for a sustained price advance and a confident breakout above the current range. At the same time, fundamental factors suggest any pullback would likely be seen by buyers as an opportunity to accumulate at lower prices.
From a technical standpoint, oil is in a bullish consolidation, facing resistance at the 50?day EMA. Support is provided by the round level of 78.00. If resistance is overcome, the next hurdles will be the 50?day SMA and the 100?day SMA, after which bulls will have a better chance to take control of the market. On a pullback, the next support will be the 9?day EMA. Note that oscillators are mixed, indicating market uncertainty about direction.
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