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It appears US equity markets have finally started to worry about extreme overbought conditions in AI-related stocks — a development that first produced consolidation in the Nasdaq and now risks triggering a corrective decline.
With US earnings season wrapping up — and overall results broadly positive — tech's index Nasdaq failed to launch significantly higher and instead has merely held near record levels.
So why is a substantial correction now a realistic possibility?
Market participants have arguably already priced in earnings, and attention is shifting to the absence of new, breakthrough growth themes that would sustainably lift demand for equities. Even the relief from falling crude, which has helped slow US inflation and reduce the odds of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, has not rekindled buying. Futures markets show the probability of a July Fed hike has fallen from 51% to about 46% at the time of writing.
Another supporting factor for equities would be lower Treasury yields. This week, the two-year note yield, which reacts sensitively to rate-change expectations, fell from a local peak of 4.298% to about 4.118%, while the 10-year yield eased from 4.632% to 4.529%. The overall message from the bond market is that the chance of a near-term rate rise has diminished, and even that wasn't enough to support the Nasdaq.
Taken together, the available evidence suggests a correction in the US market is not just overdue but perhaps overripe.
What to expect from markets today?
Given that many drivers have already been priced in and concerns about an inflated AI bubble are now on investors' radar, we should expect a correction in the Nasdaq index and in the corresponding CFD contract.
Daily forecast:
#NDX
The Nasdaq 100 futures CFD has slipped below the support level of 28,668.00. From a technical perspective, consolidation below this level could pave the way for further losses, first toward 28,220.50 and then to 27,500.00 next week. A sell entry could be placed at 28,470.00.
GOLD
Gold is trading above 3,982.50. Renewed Middle East tensions could push the price down toward 3,950.00 and then 3,900.00. A sell entry could be considered at 3,975.00.
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