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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has become more complex. There is still no indication that the upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), which began in January of last year, has been invalidated. However, the trend structure has now taken on a corrective form. From a long-term perspective, wave C is expected to develop, with its low projected below the low of wave A. At present, the low of wave C is already below the low of wave A, meaning wave C could be completed at any time. Nevertheless, if the news backdrop remains favorable for the U.S. dollar, this wave could extend significantly further.
On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure. If this assumption is correct, wave 4 is currently unfolding, while wave 3 has formed as a five-wave pattern. Once this structure is complete, the instrument may transition into a new upward wave sequence. However, according to the current wave count, wave 5 is still expected to develop. Therefore, the euro may decline toward the 1.13 level.
The EUR/USD pair was unchanged throughout Friday, while the new week opened with a moderate appreciation of the euro, which has had little impact on the overall market picture. The presumed wave 4 has now been developing for a fourth consecutive week and still shows no signs of completion. At present, it has taken the form of a three-wave structure, although it could still evolve into a five-wave pattern if market conditions warrant. Therefore, a further gradual rise in the pair remains possible.
On Monday morning, reports emerged that Donald Trump is seriously considering resuming full-scale military action against Iran. The Pentagon has begun increasing its military aviation presence in the region, while the new escalation could be triggered by the deaths of several U.S. service members following Iranian retaliatory strikes and the collapse of negotiations. Broadly speaking, this is exactly what I have been emphasizing for several months. Under the current circumstances, lasting peace between the United States and Iran appears impossible, and any negotiations are likely to fail because the positions and demands of both sides remain fundamentally incompatible. Washington and Tehran seek entirely different outcomes, and neither side appears willing to compromise on the most critical and disputed issues.
At the same time, I do not believe Trump will ultimately decide to resume a full-scale war, as there appears to be little strategic benefit in doing so. What would he hope to achieve through another military operation? To force Iran to sign an agreement on the White House's terms? That is unlikely to happen, and Iran has already demonstrated as much. Instead, Tehran could respond by blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
In that scenario, oil prices could surge sharply, inflation would accelerate worldwide, and the Republican Party's chances of winning the congressional elections would diminish significantly. In my view, the core problem is that Donald Trump is unwilling to acknowledge failure in the Middle East, while Iran appears prepared to continue resisting U.S. pressure—even through prolonged military confrontation—until the next U.S. presidential election, if necessary.
Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within its broader upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart), while in the shorter term it continues to trade within a downward trend segment. In my opinion, the current environment offers a reasonable opportunity to begin building long positions, although the pair could still decline toward the 1.13 level as part of wave 5 within wave C. Since wave analysis often produces unexpected developments, I would already begin preparing for buying opportunities.
On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the formation of a corrective wave structure. In the near term, wave C is expected to continue developing toward the 1.1352 area, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C corrective structure is complete, a new long-term upward trend may begin.
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