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The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming more complex. While there is still no talk of canceling the upward segment of the trend (see lower image), the wave structure of the trend has now taken on a corrective form. In the long term, we should expect the formation of wave C, with its low expected to be below the low of wave A. Currently, the low of wave C is below the low of wave A, meaning that wave C could complete at any moment. However, with a favorable news backdrop for the dollar, this wave could take on a much more elongated appearance.
On a smaller scale, I can identify a classic five-wave downward structure. If this assumption is correct, we are currently forming wave 4, while wave 3 has taken on a five-wave form. After completing this structure, the instrument may transition to an upward wave sequence. However, according to the current wave analysis, we still have the completion of wave 5 ahead. Consequently, the European currency may dip to the 13th figure.
The EUR/USD instrument fell by 15 basis points on Tuesday, and the amplitude of movements was again extremely low. There were few economic events yesterday, so forex market participants continued to take a rest for most of the day. The exception was geopolitics. The news flow from the Middle East and the White House has not ceased, but most of the news consists of verbal exchanges. The situation on the battlefield remains unchanged. Iran and the US have been attacking each other's positions for ten consecutive days, and no one is thinking about a memorandum, ceasefire, or negotiations. Neither insiders nor the media have received any messages from Iran expressing a desire to resume talks. Therefore, as I have mentioned many times before, Tehran is quite comfortable with the prospect of waging war at least until November, when the midterm elections take place in the US. Tehran hopes that Trump's party will suffer a crushing defeat, and the US president will not be able to make decisions about attacks on Iran unilaterally. His decisions will be blocked by the Democrats. Thus, I would even say that at this moment, it makes no sense for Tehran to return to the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has stated that it is the US that is not interested in new negotiations with Iran. According to the American leader, he has already received phone calls from Iran asking for a meeting to negotiate a ceasefire. However, America will agree to a meeting only when Iran is ready for substantive negotiations. It is worth noting that Trump's words are once again entirely unsubstantiated. Fundamentally, Trump can make any statements every day; they can only be refuted by Iran. However, Iran seems tired of this and is thus keeping silent. I believe the war will continue, as Iran will not make concessions and time works in its favor. Trump has no options left except for waging war for the sake of war.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (see lower image), while in a shorter-term perspective, it is within a downward segment of the trend. In my opinion, it is a good time to attempt to form long positions, although the instrument may still dip to the 13th figure in wave 5 of C. Wave analysis often presents surprises, which is why I would already start to readjust toward buying.
On a larger scale, an upward segment of the trend is visible, after which a corrective wave sequence began. In the near future, we should expect the formation of wave C with targets located around the 1.1352 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% on the Fibonacci scale. After completing the A-B-C structure, a new long-term upward trend may begin.
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