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Gold (XAU/USD) has pulled back slightly from the two?week high reached earlier on Wednesday but retains a bullish intraday bias. Expectations that diplomatic talks between the US and Iran could ease energy prices and soften the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance are weighing on the US dollar and, in turn, supporting the metal. In fact, representatives of Iran and the US have confirmed their readiness to continue talks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday said the US remains open to further discussions with Iran, while Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni urged Pakistan to continue its mediation efforts. This helped the dollar to give back some gains after a strong rally last week.
At the same time, US forces reported the completion of strikes on Iran by about 3 a.m. Wednesday, marking a continuation of the 11th night of operations targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage facilities. President Donald Trump warned that strikes will intensify and be aimed at sites linked to Iran's attempts to revive its nuclear program. Iran, for its part, continues attacks across the Persian Gulf, striking US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Iran also reported strikes on two oil tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis have opened a new front by declaring a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.
These events raise the risk of a broader regional confrontation and could worsen supply shortages on global energy markets if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. That, in turn, pushes oil to fresh monthly highs and heightens inflationary concerns from rising energy prices — a factor that could keep the Fed on a tight monetary path.
CME Group's FedWatch tool shows traders currently pricing roughly an 88% probability of at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. That outlook supports dollar bulls and argues for caution when taking positions in non-yielding gold ahead of potential dollar strength.
Given the current backdrop, any gold recovery is likely to be limited. In the near term, gold will most likely trade in a range where rallies face clear barriers. A more sustainable recovery would probably require a drop in oil prices, some decline in US real yields and a softening of Fed expectations. Until those shifts occur, upside potential is likely to remain constrained.
From a technical viewpoint, a breakout and close above $4,100 would favor the bulls. However, confirmation of the positive scenario requires a sustained move above $4,145. Support is provided by the 20-day SMA. Oscillators have not yet turned positive, so caution is warranted for bulls as bears currently retain the advantage.
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