24.07.202610:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/JPY – Price Analysis and Forecast: ECB President Lagarde Highlights Upside Inflation Risks Without Signaling a Future Interest Rate Path

The EUR/JPY pair has extended its gains for a fourth consecutive trading day and appears set to end the week on a positive note as traders prepare for the weekly close. Although the euro has not fully capitalized on the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish guidance reported by Bloomberg, sources indicate that ECB policymakers remain open to raising interest rates in September.

The euro is also receiving support from the ECB's hawkish monetary policy stance, which contrasts with the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to foreign exchange market intervention.

At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, while risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside. She emphasized that the central bank will continue to conduct monetary policy with the objective of bringing inflation back to its 2% medium-term target. At the same time, the ECB will remain data-dependent and avoid providing advance guidance on the future path of interest rates.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is weakening against the euro, although less sharply than expected, as investors remain cautious amid concerns about possible intervention by the Bank of Japan to support the Japanese currency.

On Friday, traders should focus on the preliminary PMI data for Germany, France, and the euro area to identify potential trading opportunities. The euro area's Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge down from 51.4 to 51.3, while the Services PMI is forecast to improve slightly from 49.4 to 49.8, although it is expected to remain in contraction territory.

From a technical perspective, the daily EUR/JPY chart continues to indicate a prevailing bullish bias, further supported by a rising Relative Strength Index (RSI). Yesterday's breakout above the 186.35 resistance level is attempting to shift the market structure from a sideways range to an upward trend as prices continue to advance at a moderate pace.

To maintain the bullish momentum, EUR/JPY must break above the April 30 high at 187.60. A successful breakout would allow buyers to challenge this year's high at 187.95. The next key psychological resistance levels are located at 188.00 and 190.00.

On the other hand, if sellers seek to reverse the market structure, they must first break below Thursday's support at 186.00. This would open the way for a test of the 100-day moving average.

The table below shows the performance of the Japanese yen against the major currencies this week, during which it posted its strongest gains against the Swiss franc.