27.07.202605:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on July 27? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. In Germany, the business climate index for July will be published today, which we cannot classify as "important." In the US, there is a relatively significant report on durable goods orders for June. This report has the potential to impact market sentiment, but at the same time, macroeconomic data remain a lower priority for traders.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy among fundamental events on Monday, but this week will feature meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, while last week saw the European Central Bank meeting. The ECB meeting and its results were once again ignored, as they suggested a rise for the euro. Neither the BoE nor the Fed intends to change key rates this month; however, the market can interpret the results of these meetings in various ways. Against the euro, the dollar is performing very well, so the Fed meeting is particularly risky for the European currency. The British pound shows greater resilience against the dollar, so markets may see what unfolds on Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to shift in an undesirable direction. Another ceasefire has been broken; the US and Iran have resumed fighting for a week and a half, and negotiations are currently not taking place. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Yemeni Houthis have declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia, likely anticipating a blockade of the Red Sea. The situation is becoming increasingly tense, provoking a new rise in oil prices.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, the euro may continue to move within the sideways channel of 1.1377-1.1461 towards its upper boundary, while the British pound may follow a new upward trend. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1363-1.1377, and the British pound from the area of 1.3319-1.3331. Volatility in both currency pairs may once again be low.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.