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Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to correct after another drop. Over the past month and a half, Ethereum and Bitcoin have managed to recover somewhat, but there are still no signs of an end to the downward trend that began last year. The fundamental backdrop remains weak for the cryptocurrency segment, primarily expressed in low spot demand, capital flowing into the AI sector, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to achieving 2% inflation, which suggests at least the maintenance of a tight monetary policy. Thus, we still do not see grounds for sustained growth in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Meanwhile, it has been five years since the authorities of El Salvador decided to make Bitcoin the second national currency, officially granting it the status of a means of payment. The Central Bank of El Salvador has published data showing that in the first half of 2026, only 1% of total remittance flows sent to the country came from Bitcoin transactions. Approximately $5 billion was transferred to the country. Cryptocurrency transactions have not gained widespread use within the country, and Salvadorans living abroad still prefer to deal with traditional bank transfers. The government of El Salvador anticipated that the population would actively use cryptocurrency, which was supposed to "save citizens money and reduce remittance times." However, it seems that the population did not appreciate this initiative.
As has been reported multiple times, Bitcoin is hardly used for transactions. It is primarily used as an investment tool. However, for almost a whole year, the "digital gold" has been in a downward trend, leading to a decline in investment flows as well. Bitcoin still cannot compete with fiat money as a means of payment, which is entirely logical and reasonable. If you have 1 Bitcoin, it's worth $100,000 today, but it could be worth $50,000 in a couple of months. Few want to hold their money in such an instrument.
Bitcoin continues to form a complete downward trend. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), although this level has essentially already been reached. However, we do not believe the downward trend will end here. The last bearish FVG pattern was formed in the area of $68,000-$70,700 on the daily timeframe, so this area serves as the POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues the second wave of correction, but sell trades remain more attractive overall. Short-term long positions are permissible; however, it should be understood that the trend remains downward.
On the daily timeframe, a downward trend continues to form, which began in August of last year. The key selling pattern remains the bearish Order Block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe that the current downward trend is over, as there are no signs of its completion for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. Currently, a new phase of correction is ongoing after a buy signal formed on the 4-hour timeframe in the last bullish FVG. Local bullish patterns on the 4-hour timeframe can be traded. On the daily timeframe, we recommend waiting for the correction to complete and the bearish FVG to execute for Bitcoin, rather than trading against the trend.
CHOCH – the break of the trend structure.
Liquidity – Liquidity, Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.
FVG – Area of price inefficiency. Price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete lack of either side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it, instead impulsively breaking through it and then testing it from the other side.
OB – Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position to collect liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.
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