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On Monday, the USD/CHF pair is weakening after a five-day rise. This dynamic is due to the fall of the US dollar, prompted by the easing of geopolitical tensions following a pause in military action between the US and Iran, providing a respite after 13 days of escalating conflict.
The US has halted strikes amid growing concerns over the depletion of interceptor stocks and a reduced list of remaining targets in Iran. Additionally, General Dan Kayne reported that on Friday the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned President Trump that continuing the military campaign could severely undermine critical ammunition supplies.
Nonetheless, market participants are exercising caution due to potential supply disruptions, considering that Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi facilities along the Red Sea.
Traders expect that at Wednesday's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, the interest rates will remain unchanged before resuming hikes in September. However, some market participants still anticipate an unexpected decision at the upcoming meeting.
Also, for better trading opportunities, it is important to closely monitor the release of key economic indicators, including preliminary GDP data for the second quarter, PCE inflation figures, and earnings reports from major US companies, to gain a more comprehensive view of the economy's state.
Still, the USD/CHF pair has the potential for recovery, as the decline in Swiss government bond yields may exert pressure on the Swiss franc. With the yield on 10-year bonds decreasing to around 0.46%, the fall in domestic fixed-income asset yields could encourage global investors to reallocate capital into more lucrative foreign bonds.
From a technical standpoint, the pair has found support at the 9-day EMA, with the upward trend intact and oscillators positive, confirming the bulls' advantage. Therefore, this correction may be seen as a buying opportunity. However, if prices drop below the 14-day EMA and the 20-day SMA, the positive outlook for the bulls will change.
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