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Brent has fallen below $88 per barrel, continuing its sharp decline following an 8.7 percent drop on Monday, the largest in over three months. WTI is holding around $82.
The continuation of the decline was prompted by President Trump's comments that the US and Iran are negotiating to end the conflict in the Middle East, with both sides continuing to refrain from attacks. According to Axios, Trump stated that he decided to halt strikes to give negotiations another chance. In comments to reporters, he also mentioned that there is a "good chance" for progress in the talks. However, it remains unclear whether any substantive discussions are actually taking place.
Oil has been extremely volatile this month. Initially, prices surged sharply amid the resumption of hostilities between Washington and Tehran and the expansion of the war to the Red Sea, only to crash when tensions eased in recent days. Nevertheless, traders remain cautious as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet normalized.
Data on actual shipping confirms this caution. Observed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday remained muted, although some vessels seemed to have passed with their transponders turned off. The day before, only four vessels crossed the strait.
On the diplomatic front, activity has noticeably intensified in several directions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held late Monday phone talks with his Saudi and Omani counterparts, calling for cooperation regarding Hormuz, according to a ministry statement. Concurrently, Iranian and Omani negotiators continue attempts to reach an agreement on resuming shipping through the strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to global markets and during peacetime accounted for one-fifth of daily oil supplies.
Today, Trump is scheduled to meet in Washington with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks about Iran. It should be noted that these two countries began the war in February in a bid to disrupt Tehran's nuclear program.
Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $83.56. This would allow targeting $86.67, above which it would be quite challenging to break. The furthest target would be in the $89.54 area. If oil falls, bears will attempt to take control of $80.50. If successful, breaking this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $78.70, with the prospect of dropping to $76.30.
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