31.07.202609:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 31

Bitcoin attempted to break above $65,000 yesterday but was unable to hold that level for long. Ethereum also followed suit, trying to reach $1,950 before retreating.

Meanwhile, according to recent data, the total reserves of Bitcoin held by publicly traded American companies reached 1,240,000 coins, accounting for nearly 93% of the digital asset's total corporate supply worldwide. According to the BitcoinMiningStock.io tracker, 1,239,968 BTC were recorded in the balances of public companies as of mid-June, confirming the scale of capital concentration in the American jurisdiction. At the same time, other countries, including Japan (with Metaplanet) and other markets, account for the remaining 7%.

Over the past year, these companies have purchased an additional 510,000 BTC, which is more than three times the amount mined by miners during the same period. This level of imbalance indicates a systemic disparity between supply and demand in the market. Each new coin entering circulation through mining is immediately absorbed by corporate demand, resulting in a threefold excess, meaning that the real deficit of freely circulating coins is growing faster than nominal issuance indicates. This directly correlates with earlier observations that public companies accumulated more than twice as much Bitcoin in the first quarter than miners produced, and the proportion of deficit has only increased over the year.

The scale of corporate Bitcoin absorption should be considered alongside the previously described JPMorgan phenomenon of miner capitulation, declining hash rates, and declining mining difficulty. If miners produce fewer new coins due to economic pressures, while corporate demand continues to grow at a pace three times greater than issuance, the structural deficit of available supply will only deepen, irrespective of short-term price fluctuations. This creates a kind of paradox in the current cycle: the market is experiencing one of the softest bear periods in Bitcoin's history because an increasing share of supply is being physically removed from circulation by corporate holders, rather than due to high speculative demand from retail and institutional traders.

All this is positive for Bitcoin and its future growth prospects towards new record highs.

As for the short-term trading strategy, the plan and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $64,500 with a target rise to $65,100. I plan to exit my buy positions at around $65,100 and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also be done from the lower boundary of $64,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, aiming for levels $64,500 and $65,100.

Selling Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after the level of $64,200 is reached with a target drop to $63,600. I plan to exit the sell positions around $63,600 and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can also be done from the upper boundary of $64,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting $64,200 and $63,600.

Ethereum

Buying Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,911 with a target rise to $1,943. I plan to exit my buy positions at around $1,943 and immediately sell on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also be done from the lower boundary of $1,893 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting $1,911 and $1,943.

Selling Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,893 with a target drop to $1,866. I plan to exit the sell positions at around $1,866 and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can also be done from the upper boundary of $1,911 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting $1,893 and $1,866.