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The GBP/USD currency pair also showed strong growth over the past week, gaining 220 pips in just four days. Thus, we believe that the upward movement that began on June 25 remains in effect and will continue to develop. Recall that the British pound has been trading in a sideways channel between 1.3150 and 1.3780 for a year now. In June, the price approached the lower boundary of this channel, so it was reasonable to expect a movement towards the upper boundary. Moreover, in the longer term, the British pound remains within an upward trend that began back in 2022. So what do we have in the end? The British pound has been in an upward trend for four years, while the most the U.S. dollar has been able to achieve in a very favorable 2026 is a minor (on the weekly timeframe) correction within the sideways channel. Thus, in the long term, we expect the same growth in the British currency as in the euro.
The geopolitical factor continues to resemble a "rollercoaster" mixed with outright farce. We understand that it concerns a military conflict in which lives are lost, infrastructure is destroyed, and the world is experiencing an energy and fuel crisis. However, the way events are unfolding in the Middle East truly resembles a comedic version of the "Santa Barbara" series. And the main character of this series is Donald Trump. It was Trump who ordered the "pilot episode" to launch at the end of February, and now he has begun production on the third or fourth season.
Events in the Middle East develop cyclically, in a closed loop. First, Trump announces the proximity of an agreement; then he threatens new strikes on Iran; next, he carries out new strikes on Iran, receives retaliatory attacks on American military bases and allies in the Middle East, again talks about a ceasefire and the closeness of a deal with Tehran, re-threatens Iran with destruction, and so on. Nothing new is happening in the Middle East. We even get the impression that Iran will sooner or later start ignoring Trump and the American army, which is nearby and from time to time tries through its actions to achieve something, to prove something, to obtain something.
Iran has consistently provided clear responses to all ultimatums from the White House leader. There will be no concessions regarding the Strait of Hormuz or the nuclear agreement. Iran will not abandon its enriched uranium stocks, will not give up on nuclear energy, will not stop producing ballistic missiles, and will not relinquish its right to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. It is ready to fight to protect its interests for as long as necessary. And it should be acknowledged that Iran's strategy is logical, while Trump's strategy is not understood even by Republican congressmen, let alone American citizens.
Iran has maintained a consistent political course despite sanctions and a perpetual war for about 50 years. We are confident that this political course will outlive Trump and will certainly "wait" for his resignation. Therefore, Iran can continue to defend itself with confidence and wait for the Republican Party to suffer defeat in the congressional elections, for Trump's presidential term to expire, and for Trump himself to realize that he will not be able to force Iran to accept his ultimatums through forceful methods. We even believe that soon Trump will attempt a new "distraction." Earlier in the year, "the smell of trouble" surrounding the "Epstein case" prompted him to start a war in the Middle East. Now, having suffered a humiliating defeat in the Middle East, he may try to divert public attention by invading Venezuela or Greenland. In any case, something will happen soon. And considering the events of the last year and a half, it is unlikely that this "something" will be positive.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 93 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Monday, August 3, we expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3386 and 1.3572. The upper linear regression channel is directed downwards, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone twice, which may provoke a new downward correction.
S1 – 1.3428
S2 – 1.3367
S3 – 1.3306
R1 – 1.3489
R2 – 1.3550
R3 – 1.3611
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. The year 2026 is currently turning out super positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every fairytale comes to an end. The weekly timeframe shows a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, which supports expectations of continued growth in the British currency in the medium term. Long positions with targets of 1.3550 and 1.3572 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. When the price is below the moving average, bearish trading can be pursued with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3245.
Linear regression channels help define the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, it means that the trend is strong at present;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate for the next day based on current volatility parameters;
The CCI indicator's entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
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