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Oil prices have stabilized. WTI has recovered to around $80 per barrel. Brent also rebounded well after a sharp decline that followed the latest ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
The details of the negotiations remain suspiciously vague, and the parties' accounts differ. Iran has stated that discussions with Oman about creating a temporary route through the strait are progressing. Still, it has categorically denied any negotiations with U.S. President Trump; meanwhile, he stated on Monday that the two countries are negotiating to open the strait literally tomorrow, adding that the current negotiations represent the last chance for Iran, after he claimed to have canceled a major attack.
The key paradox of the moment is that the market reacted with a sharp price drop, even though there are no clear signs of Iran's readiness to open a free passage through the strait, which previously accounted for about one-fifth of global oil supplies. However, the very rhetoric of continuing dialogue helped ease concerns about large-scale attacks on the region's energy infrastructure, and this was sufficient to trigger a sharp price movement.
Currently, the market's assessment of oil prices is excessively pessimistic, as expected given the asymmetric sensitivity to negative news. Further price changes will only come after breakthrough results, as the market has already experienced a similar cycle of euphoria after the signing of a memorandum in June, which then fell apart, and many fear a repeat of that scenario.
The real danger to shipping has not gone away, despite the diplomatic rhetoric. Although some vessels continue to cross the strait, the threat remains significant: the British Maritime and Coastguard Agency reported that on Sunday, a tanker off the coast of Oman recorded an explosion in close proximity to the incident, highlighting the ongoing risks to shipping in this region.
As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $80.51. This would allow targeting $83.56, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be in the $86.67 range. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at $78.70. If successful, a breakout of this range could deal a serious blow to bull positions and push oil down to a low of $76.30, with the potential to reach $73.80.
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