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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD was unable to either continue its decline or start a new rise on Tuesday. The rebound from the resistance level of 1.3526–1.3557 on Monday suggests that the pair may decline somewhat toward the support level of 1.3454–1.3458. Consolidation above the 1.3526–1.3557 level would signal that the pound's rise is likely to continue.
The wave structure remains "bearish," strange as that may sound. The latest completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the latest upward wave, which is still forming, has not broken the previous high. Thus, the bears remain in control of the market, although they may lose this advantage in the near future. In my view, the "bearish" impulse of 2026 has been completed, and only geopolitics could prevent the bulls from continuing their advance. Geopolitical developments remain contradictory.
There was no significant news background on Tuesday, but the market is already anticipating the U.S. inflation report. The bulls are not ready to continue their advance because they do not understand the prospects for FOMC monetary policy, which will be determined to a large extent by inflation. In my view, inflation remains the key indicator for the Fed, as Kevin Warsh has already stated several times. If his position has not changed, rising inflation will effectively "order" the Fed to raise its interest rate in September. Traders, however, expect the Consumer Price Index to decline in July, but there is no reason to celebrate this. Prices could rise again in August, as oil continues to rise amid the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and the United States cannot reach an agreement and are not even trying to do so, simply exchanging accusations, demands, and conditions. Neither side of the conflict is prepared to make any concessions or comply with ultimatums. Thus, the situation in the Middle East is not changing, which is pushing oil and gas prices higher again. If energy prices rise, inflation will rise as well. The question is: what will the Fed do about high prices if the labor market is weakening?
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3467–1.3482. Thus, the upward move may now continue toward the next 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538. A close above this level will finally confirm that a "bullish" advance has begun, which could last for many months. No emerging divergences are currently observed in any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,446, while the number of Short positions increased by 13,446. The current gap between the numbers of Long and Short positions is effectively 55,000 versus 113,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears' advantage remains substantial. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but it is now, as the news background has changed.
I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policies, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has repositioned itself toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On August 12, the economic calendar contains one event, which is extremely important. The economic background will affect market sentiment during the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from the 1.3526–1.3557 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3454–1.3458. These trades can be kept open today. Buying was possible following a close above the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3557. The target was reached. New long positions can be considered following a close above the 1.3526–1.3557 level.
The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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