13.08.202616:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil (WTI): supply risks versus unexpected inventory build

WTI crude is in a complex phase where geopolitical risks and a structural supply deficit are being offset by an unexpected rise in US inventories and weakening demand. The market remains highly sensitive to developments.

The WTI price is trading with volatility around $83.30 in the early US session on Wednesday, balancing opposing forces: persistent supply risks from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and an unexpected build in US crude inventories that is weighing on the market. Investors are also digesting US inflation data, which could affect monetary policy expectations and, consequently, the US dollar.

At the time of writing, WTI is trading near $83.30, pulling back after approaching nearly two-week highs. The market is processing the mix of geopolitical risks and the surprise US inventory data.

Geopolitical backdrop remains tense:

• Iran continues to say the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets its conditions. Tehran's demands include an end to US hostilities and blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and compensation for damages.
• Tensions remain high: US forces opened fire on a vessel attempting to breach the blockade of Iranian ports, and Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue.
• Diplomatic efforts, however, have not stopped: Pakistan's interior minister held talks with Iranian officials, and Pakistan described the 14-point memorandum of understanding reached under Qatari mediation in June as a potential "template for peace."

Fundamental backdrop:

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, or roughly 4%, to 102.02 million bpd. This reflects supply losses from the Middle East and Russia and the continued lack of an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• The IEA also warns that global oil stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels last month, pushing total stocks below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025.
• The oil market is likely to remain in deficit until Middle East tensions are resolved, supporting prices. However, over the longer term, prices could stabilize once supplies normalize, as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts.

Headwinds:

• The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpected rise in US crude inventories of 9.1 million barrels last week — the largest increase since February and well above market expectations (a 0.5 million-barrel draw).
• Against the backdrop of rising stocks, the IEA also forecasts global oil demand will decline by 1.6 million barrels this year. Higher fuel prices are putting additional downward pressure on oil consumption.
• US CPI inflation matched forecasts (3.4% y/y), leaving uncertainty about the Fed's next move, although earlier weak employment data had already reduced the odds of a rate hike. This has an indirect effect on the dollar and, therefore, oil prices.

Short technical analysis

Technically, WTI retains a bullish bias in the short term, but indicators suggest a possible pause.

• RSI (14) on the daily chart is around 50–53, indicating neutral momentum. This suggests the price may consolidate or move in either direction.
• The Stochastic has entered the overbought zone, indicating persistent bullish momentum.
• OSMA is crossing up through the neutral line, also confirming continued bullish momentum.

Key levels

• Resistance: $83.56 (R1), $84.12 (R2), $84.65 (R3).
• Support: $82.47 (S1), $81.94 (S2), $81.40 (S3).
• Psychological levels: $80.00 and $85.00 remain important levels that could cap moves.

Conclusion and recommendations

WTI is in a complex phase where geopolitical risks and a structural supply deficit conflict with an unexpected inventory build in the US and weakening demand. The market remains highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and macro data, creating both opportunities and risks for investors.

For short-term traders:

• Enter long positions on a sustained break above $84.00 with targets of $85.00–$86.00 and a stop-loss below $82.40 and $81.40 (EMA 144 on the daily chart).
• Consider short positions only on a break below $80.50, confirmed by fundamental factors, with a stop-loss above $83.50.
• Closely monitor EIA data, geopolitical news, and comments from Fed officials.

For medium-term investors:

• Adopt a wait-and-see stance until the situation around the Strait of Hormuz becomes clearer.
• A potential pullback to $78.00–$80.00 could be used to add to long positions, provided the positive fundamental backdrop remains intact.

Note that the EIA forecasts an average WTI price of around $80.88 in 2026, and the IEA expects global supply to remain in deficit until key straits are reopened.

Risk management:

• Exercise caution ahead of EIA releases and other macro data — volatility can be high.
• Strictly observe stop-losses — breaches of key levels can trigger significant moves.
• Keep monitoring geopolitical developments and inventory data, which remain the key drivers.