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On Thursday, EUR/USD attempted to resume its decline toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1507, but in the second half of the day, the bulls pushed the bears back. Trader activity remains low. Today, a rebound from the 1.1551 level would again favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward 1.1507. Consolidation above 1.1551 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the rise toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1620.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains "bullish." The latest completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the latest downward wave did not break the previous low. All waves are currently extremely small. Geopolitical developments have raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, while Iran, the United States, and Oman are holding talks on control of the strategically important strait. Thus, geopolitics is currently not working in the dollar's favor, while the market's "hawkish" expectations regarding FOMC monetary policy are easing.
The fundamental backdrop was rather uneventful on Thursday. Industrial production in the European Union disappointed traders once again, but the euro did not remain under pressure for long. In the second half of the day, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was released, showing a notable decline to 4.7% year-on-year. Inflation is slowing, which provides some relief to Kevin Warsh and other FOMC members, whom the markets are currently calling for to tighten monetary policy. However, in my view, it is too early to relax. The Producer Price Index declined for the same reason as headline inflation. In July, oil prices fell to $70 per barrel. Therefore, first, fuel and gas became cheaper for companies, and second, companies stopped factoring future increases in energy prices into their costs. In August, energy prices began rising again, as there are currently no hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened in the near future. Thus, PPI and CPI could be noticeably higher this month than in July. The dollar again came under pressure, as the FOMC may leave monetary policy parameters unchanged in September.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, suggesting not merely a "bullish" attack, but a full-fledged bullish advance and trend. A rebound from 1.1578 allowed the bears to push the pair down to 1.1514, but a rebound from 1.1514 once again gives the bulls an opportunity to attack. No new emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators. Consolidation below 1.1514 would allow traders to expect a decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1411.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 3,128 Long positions and 17,484 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the following nineteen weeks, the situation became more balanced amid the apparent ceasefire and the market's hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 202,000, compared with 260,000 Short positions. The bears are once again taking the lead.
Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, various events around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war appears to end and then resume again. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and then ignored the resumption of the war. Thus, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.
On August 14, the economic calendar contains three entries, none of which I consider important. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Friday will be limited.
Buying opportunities may arise today if the pair closes above 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. Selling opportunities may arise after a rebound from 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1507 and 1.1472.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.
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