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The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart is becoming more complex. There is still no reason to consider the bullish trend segment that began in January last year (bottom chart) invalidated. On the contrary, we have seen a complete A-B-C corrective structure, which has most likely been completed. We never saw a convincing wave 5 of C. This wave took a truncated form, which also occurs from time to time. Let me remind you that classical wave structures are generally found only in textbooks. In real-world trading, traders and analysts should be more flexible in their analysis. That is why I have been saying in my reviews for a month now that traders should prepare for further growth in the euro. If the current wave structure is correct, the instrument is at the very beginning of a new bullish trend segment.
On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave bearish structure with a truncated wave 5. I allowed for the possibility that the euro would decline to the 13th figure, but the fundamental backdrop turned against the dollar, and the sellers simply lacked the strength to form a convincing wave 5. Therefore, it can be considered that the formation of a new bullish wave sequence began on July 28.
The EUR/USD rate remained unchanged on Tuesday, although several hours are still left until the end of the day, so minor price changes may still be recorded. Today is notable for the relatively large amount of economic information released from Europe and the United States, but at the same time, market participants were initially interested in almost none of it. Let me remind you that several key indicators and topics currently dominate the market. Among the indicators, I would highlight GDP, inflation, and the labor market (unemployment), while the key topics are geopolitics and the monetary policies of central banks. Since there was no news today concerning these topics, the market found no reason for significant movements.
The ZEW economic sentiment indices for the European Union and Germany were released this morning. Both indices exceeded market expectations, but they had no positive impact on the euro. A little later, the largely ignored ADP report for the previous week was released, although it is still marked as "important" on economic calendars, along with reports on housing starts and building permits. The former came in below forecasts, while the latter exceeded expectations. Overall, the result was neutral. The market found nothing interesting in the economic data. EUR/USD moved only slightly away from the previously reached highs and may resume its advance in the near future. If the current wave structure is correct, the formation of the first wave of the new trend segment is not yet complete, and the trend segment itself will take an impulsive form. Therefore, I am preparing for a prolonged strengthening of the euro, which is currently supported by the fundamental backdrop.
Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within the bullish trend segment (bottom chart), while in the shorter term, it has presumably transitioned to a new bullish wave sequence. In my view, now is an excellent time to build long positions. Unless the bearish trend segment that began on January 28 develops into a more extended five-wave structure—which would require a strong fundamental backdrop in favor of the dollar—EUR/USD is at the very beginning of a new, prolonged bullish trend segment, with targets extending as high as the 25th level.
On the higher time frame, a bullish trend segment can be seen, followed by the formation of a corrective wave sequence. The A-B-C structure is presumably complete. If so, the formation of a new impulsive bullish trend segment has begun.
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