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The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade quite calmly on Tuesday with low volatility. In principle, there were no reasons or grounds for strong movements. Over the past two and a half weeks, volatility did not rise above 63 pips at any point. Thus, the issue lies not in the absence of macroeconomic or fundamental events. The market, in principle, is in no hurry to make trading decisions. There can be many reasons for this, and we see no point in speculating on the matter. It is simply important to understand that volatility is weak at this time.
Returning to Tuesday, there were quite a few macroeconomic events on this day, but all of them fell under the definition of "secondary." Many experts focus on indicators such as economic expectations/sentiment indices or data on the housing market/real estate sales. However, we consider such reports to be secondary. The EUR/USD pair clearly does not change its direction based on these data; traders make their trading decisions independently.
Hence, there were no significant events on Tuesday, and the market continues to discuss geopolitics without clear direction, as there is nothing else to talk about. In general, news related to this topic comes in almost every day, but what kind of news is it, and what is its value to the currency market? "Donald Trump once again promised to destroy Iran and, alongside it, Oman." What is important and unique about that? Traders understand perfectly well that, for a new strike against Iran or Oman, even substantial reasons are unnecessary. Whether Trump will deliver another strike depends only on the availability of the necessary missiles.
"Iran has put forth new demands for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz." There is nothing new or unexpected in this statement either. All traders are well aware that Iran has long seized the initiative in its confrontation with Trump and has no intention of making any concessions. Moreover, Tehran now believes that Trump should be the one to concede. Congressional elections are approaching. The longer the conflict continues, the higher oil and fuel prices rise. The higher the oil and fuel prices, the higher the overall inflation and dissatisfaction among American voters with the Republican Party's policies and with Trump himself. Thus, Iran is simply waiting patiently for either concessions from the White House leader or his defeat in the elections.
"Iran intends to shift from defense to offense." This week, it has been reported that Tehran is supposedly ready to liberate the Strait of Hormuz from American influence by military means. But let's consider: can Iran carry out such an operation? It certainly can, but while it previously had the advantage of being on the defensive, that advantage now likely belongs to America. It is always easier to defend than to attack. To free the Strait of Hormuz from the American blockade, Iran would need to destroy not only all U.S. warships but also all American bases in the region. In our opinion, this is impossible, so the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked. As we can see, truly important news is few and far between. Most of it consists of typical, unverified, or unconfirmed hyped-up reports.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past five trading days as of August 19 is 42 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1537 and 1.1621 on Wednesday. The upper linear regression channel is downward-trending, indicating the continuation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory again, signaling a possible downward pullback.
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, suggesting the beginning of a new phase of the global uptrend on higher timeframes. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitics and then the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance provided significant support for the U.S. currency. However, at this time, these factors no longer support the dollar. If the price is positioned below the moving average, short positions may be considered with targets at 1.1536 and 1.1505. Long positions are relevant above the moving average line with targets of 1.1621 and 1.1627.
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