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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3526 level on Tuesday and made another rebound overnight on Wednesday. Thus, the pair may reverse in favor of the European currency and resume its advance, although all market movements over the past two days have been extremely weak. The concept of a "reversal" is rather conditional at the moment. Consolidation above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3556 would allow traders to expect further growth of the euro toward the next retracement level of 127.2% at 1.3633.
The situation has turned "bullish," but only because the size of the identifiable waves has decreased significantly. The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave (not yet complete) broke the previous high. Thus, bulls currently have the initiative in the market, but their advantage is not particularly clear-cut. Three unsuccessful attempts to break through the 1.3526–1.3557 level could allow bears to take the initiative.
The fundamental backdrop was neutral for the pound on Tuesday. The unemployment rate published in the morning did not match traders' expectations, but traders themselves considered the report insufficient to warrant a reaction. This morning, the inflation report was released, showing that the core consumer price index remained unchanged at 2.6% y/y, while the headline figure rose to 2.9% y/y. Core inflation exceeded market expectations, while headline inflation was in line with them. The slight upside surprise in core inflation led to a similarly slight strengthening of the pound. As a reminder, rising inflation (especially above forecasts) somewhat increases the probability of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England. However, in my view, 2.9% is not a level that would prompt the MPC to vote for an interest rate hike. Thus, the pound's rise based on these factors may be limited. However, the "bullish" advance will most likely continue. I still expect a stronger rise in GBP/USD.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3467–1.3482 support level, reversed in favor of the pound, and consolidated above the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538. Thus, on the 4-hour chart, the pound also has grounds to continue rising toward the next Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 1.3657. No new emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today, while the previous "bearish" divergence resulted only in a small decline.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 10,256, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,663. The current gap between the number of Long and Short positions is essentially as follows: 65,000 versus 121,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still retain a huge advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but this is now less clear because the fundamental backdrop has changed.
I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted toward expecting peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
The economic calendar for August 19 contains two entries, of which I consider only the UK inflation data important. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Wednesday could be strong.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair is possible today if there is a new rebound from the 1.3556 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526 and 1.3489. Buying opportunities were available after a rebound from the 1.3526 level, with a target of 1.3556. Consolidation above this level would allow traders to keep their long positions open for some time.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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