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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD resumed its advance on Wednesday and by the end of the day had almost reached the 1.3633–1.3641 resistance level. A rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3556. Consolidation above the zone would allow traders to expect further growth toward the next retracement level of 161.8% at 1.3731.
The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave (not yet complete) broke the previous high. Thus, the bulls currently control the initiative in the market, and their advantage is strengthening every day. The bullish trend can be considered broken only after the low of the latest completed wave is broken, that is, below 1.3414, or after two downward waves have formed.
The fundamental backdrop on Wednesday was contradictory, ambiguous, and unexpected. Early in the morning, the UK Consumer Price Index for July was released, which bullish traders could have used for another advance. However, the pound's rise began in the second half of the day rather than in the morning. The core and headline inflation reports showed only very small deviations from market expectations, and traders were broadly accurate in forecasting the July figures. Nevertheless, UK inflation accelerated, slightly increasing the probability of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England. This provides a reason for the pound to rise. In the evening, the minutes of the July FOMC meeting were released, but the pound's advance had begun well before that event. The minutes can be considered hawkish, as most policymakers considered monetary policy tightening if inflation stops slowing. At the same time, however, the minutes can be considered outdated and no longer relevant, as the Fed meeting took place three weeks ago. The U.S. dollar declined over the day, so the market was quite justified in paying little attention to the FOMC minutes. The final factor was the U.S. Treasury's decision to implement a quantitative easing (QE) program by increasing purchases of long-term bonds. It appears that this event, rather than UK inflation or the Fed minutes, caused the substantial decline in the dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.3467–1.3482 support level, reversed in favor of the pound, and consolidated above the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538. Thus, on the 4-hour chart, the pound also has grounds to continue rising toward the next Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 1.3657. No new emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 10,256, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,663. The current gap between Long and Short positions is essentially 65,000 versus 121,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still retain a huge advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but this is now less clear because the fundamental backdrop has changed.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has shifted toward expecting peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.
On August 20, the economic calendar contains two entries, neither of which is important. The economic backdrop may have no impact on market sentiment on Thursday.
Selling the pair is possible today after a rebound from the 1.3633–1.3641 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3556. Buying opportunities were available after a rebound from 1.3526, with a target of 1.3556. A close above this level allowed traders to keep their positions open with a target of 1.3633–1.3641. Today, consolidation above this zone will allow traders to keep their positions open with a target of 1.3731.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.
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