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The price test at 1.3630 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. The second test at 1.3630 led to the implementation of scenario No. 2 for buying the pound, resulting in gains of nearly 20 pips.
Yesterday, a slight increase in the dollar after strong American data was again replaced by a decline, caused by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He stated that the amount of the repurchase of long-term government bonds could exceed the previously announced $4 billion per operation. An increase in bond repurchases raises demand for debt securities and adds liquidity to the market, thereby driving down yields and weakening the dollar. This factor outweighed the positive impact of strong economic data. The British pound took advantage of the U.S. currency's weakness and strengthened against it, continuing to develop a bull market.
Today, in the first half of the day, the pound awaits a busy block of British data, including the retail sales report adjusted for fuel costs and the August PMI indices for manufacturing, services, and the composite index. Retail sales reflect consumer activity and serve as an important indicator of demand. At the same time, PMI indices are based on company surveys and indicate the state of business activity, with the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction. The services sector is especially significant, as it constitutes the bulk of the British economy. Through this data, the market will assess the economy's resilience and the likely trajectory of the Bank of England's interest rate. Strong retail sales, combined with confidence in business activity indices, will bolster faith in the economy's resilience and support the pound, potentially helping the GBP/USD pair continue its recent growth. Conversely, weak results will dampen sentiment and return the British currency to dependence on external factors, so the reaction will largely be determined by deviations of actual figures from forecasts.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point at around 1.3655 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3686 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3686, I plan to exit from long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). One can expect the pound to rise today in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3638, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3655 and 1.3686.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3638 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3607, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Only bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3655, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3638 and 1.3607.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
