02.09.202613:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – September 2 (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1577 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

The empty economic calendar for the eurozone worked in favor of the single currency, allowing it to withstand selling pressure. For this reason, there was no major sell-off in the pair during the first half of the day. In the absence of news, trading shifted toward dependence on the external market environment, which did not produce any new negative signals. This was precisely why EUR/USD managed to hold its ground and avoid a deeper decline. However, it is still too early to speak of a reversal, as the euro lacks sufficient support for an advance without a weakening of the US currency.

This support may come from the release of US economic data, as the labor market report is likely to set the tone for trading in the second half of the day. August ADP employment data, changes in factory orders, and the Fed's Beige Book will be released. The ADP report is important because it provides an early snapshot of the labor market ahead of the official figures, while a deviation from the forecast traditionally reshapes expectations for the Fed's interest rate and determines the strength of the dollar. For the single currency, the implications are straightforward. Strong employment figures will increase demand for the dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD, while a disappointing result will work in favor of the euro. The Beige Book will provide additional information, as its regional assessments of the economy will help the market refine its view of the regulator's stance.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1580 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 1.1604 level. At 1.1604, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected following weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests the 1.1566 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1580 and 1.1604 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1566 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1543 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if US economic data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests the 1.1580 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1566 and 1.1543 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the approximate price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.