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The price test at 1.1610 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair reached the target level of 1.1632.
The US services report turned out to be outright strong, but the dollar did not react to it, and that, in my view, is the main point in today's picture. Business activity jumped to 61.7, and new orders to 60.9, the best reading since February 2023. Employment, however, remained in contraction at 47.8, which reflects a personnel shortage rather than weak demand. The price component proved far more important, surging to 72.6. The reason is clear: fuel has been among rising items for seven months in a row, while tariffs and the Middle East conflict have returned to the list of main supply-chain problems. The scale of the AI boom also stands out. For the Federal Reserve, this is an obvious argument for tightening, and I still consider a September rate hike quite likely. However, the dollar ignored all this because the US and the Bank of Japan were actively conducting currency intervention that weakened it. The single currency took advantage of the moment, and EUR/USD moved up. I believe the intervention effect can keep the euro afloat in the near term, at least until US labor market data are released.
Today the euro enters the first half of the day with a focus on German industrial orders and eurozone retail sales. Industrial orders show how confidently the bloc's largest economy looks to the future, and retail characterizes consumers' willingness to spend; through these channels, the data influence European Central Bank policy expectations. I believe that even a disappointing print will not provoke a strong move, because the central bank's hawkish tilt currently supports the euro. In the event of weak reports, I allow only a small pullback in EUR/USD, but not a major sell-off, since the market expects an ECB rate hike on September 10 and price pressures persist. In my view, absent strong negative surprises, the euro's initiative will be determined more by dollar dynamics than by German or eurozone data.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought if the price reaches around 1.1636 (the green line on the chart), with a target to rise to 1.1657. At 1.1657, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. Expect euro strength only after very strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1622, with the MACD indicator in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1636 and 1.1657.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the level 1.1622 (the red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1602, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today with weak data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1636 while the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1622 and 1.1602.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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