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Concerns about energy-driven inflation are bolstering the prospect of Fed tightening and further constraining gold price gains.
Gold (XAU/USD) has eased slightly, interrupting a two-day advance amid a modestly stronger US dollar. Nonetheless, the metal remains above $4,450 and close to the weekly high reached yesterday as traders await the release of key monthly US employment data. The well-known nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report should provide additional signals about the Federal Reserve's likely strategy as markets pare back expectations for a September rate hike — developments that will materially affect the dollar and could add momentum to the precious metal.
TD Securities notes that "the nonfarm payrolls data due Friday is the next important event for the precious metals market," given market participants' exposure to "resurgent Fed hawkishness and strong volatility in energy markets." The bank, however, strikes a more upbeat long-term tone, saying it does not expect a sharp price collapse because the gold market's backdrop improves as the dollar depreciates and because Fed rate hikes are by no means guaranteed.
Ahead of the data, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he is inclined to keep the federal funds rate on hold at the next FOMC meeting provided inflation releases bring no surprises. Investors reacted: US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar softened, helping gold recover from a four-week low hit on Wednesday. Still, inflation risks linked to rising energy prices keep the door open for a rate increase later this month, which could allow the dollar to rebound from a one-and-a-half-week low and cap commodity price gains.
Oil prices are trading near highs not seen since July 24 amid renewed US–Iran tensions and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. In the context of the Middle East escalation, Iran struck US military bases in Kuwait and the UAE on Thursday. Meanwhile, US Vice President J. D. Vance said President Donald Trump has several options against Tehran — economic, military, diplomatic and covert. South Korea is also preparing to deploy forces to secure shipping in the strategic Strait of Hormuz by year-end.
These factors support a geopolitical risk premium that boosts oil and reinforces the US dollar's safe-haven appeal. Short-term gold price direction will, however, hinge on the upcoming US employment report.
Technically, gold has so far halted the recent corrective decline from around $4,700 — the highest level since May 14 — and is trading toward a modest weekly gain. A meaningful further advance would require convincing strength and a sustained break above the round $4,500 level and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' edge, so there remains hope for their victory. But if prices drop back below the 100-day SMA and the 200-day EMA, the bulls would likely lose momentum again.
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