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The GBP/USD currency pair was practically immobilized for most of Monday, with volatility around 40 pips. In essence, there were no meaningful moves on Monday. The macroeconomic backdrop was also absent — the market had nothing to react to during the day. For the third week in a row, everything boils down to one or at most two events. Last week, the market awaited Nonfarm Payrolls; the week before that, annual Nonfarm Payrolls; this week, it is awaiting the US inflation report; and next week, traders will await the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings. As we said, the market now reacts only to the most important events and ignores the rest. In our view, fundamentals and macro remain on the side of the euro and pound. The technical picture on nearly all timeframes also implies upward movement. Thus, we expect nothing but strengthening in the British currency. We saw a shallow correction; it is time to restore the uptrend. Today, unfortunately, market moves may again be weak due to the absence of fundamental and macro events. Recently, the market has shown it does not force events and prefers to act only on major releases. In addition, very high uncertainty remains over the Fed's September decision.
Technically, the pound completed the downtrend formation as the trendline was broken. In the near term, price may head toward Senkou Span B, the last support for bears. If that line is cleared, traders will have confirmation of a shift to an uptrend on the hourly timeframe.
On the 5-minute TF on Monday, one buy signal formed. Price broke the critical line early in the European session, allowing traders to open long positions. By the end of the day, those longs could be closed for around 15 pips of profit. These trades could also have been carried into Tuesday, since moves are very weak now and it often takes several days to see meaningful profit on a trade.
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated, with shorts, for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, high demand for the dollar in H1 2026 is unsurprising. The war is formally not over, and only geopolitics could support the US dollar in the near term. However, until a close below the trendline, we would not expect a strong fall in the pair.
In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Trump's policies, as seen on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy tends to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains, as shown by the trendline. Price recently tested and bounced from that line. According to the latest COT (Sept 1), Non-commercials closed 8,200 BUYs and 3,100 SELLs, so the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,100 contracts that week.
On the hourly TF, GBP/USD may begin a new upward trend. In the medium and long term, the pound remains biased upward, so growth is logical. We still see no strong reasons for prolonged dollar strength, and last week's important US reports did not give it robust support.
For September 8 we highlight key levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. Senkou Span B (1.3563) and Kijun-sen (1.3510) may also provide signals. Set stop-loss to break even after price moves 20 pips in the favorable direction. Ichimoku lines may shift intraday and should be accounted for when taking signals.
No major UK or US events are scheduled on Tuesday; the US will release only the weekly ADP report, which attracts little interest. The most important events remain scheduled for the end of the week, so volatility may again be low today.
Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3510 and 1.3465–1.3480 if price rebounds from Senkou Span B. Long positions can be opened on a confirmed close above Senkou Span B or on a bounce from the critical line. However, we do not expect strong moves today.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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