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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to remain under pressure despite the overall weakness of the U.S. dollar, as hawkish expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and persistent geopolitical uncertainty support the dollar as a safe-haven asset, limiting the upside in gold prices. Traders appear to be acting cautiously, avoiding aggressive positions and preferring to wait for the release of new U.S. inflation data scheduled for this week.
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These key indicators will help determine the direction of Fed policy amid inflationary risks caused by rising energy prices.
The U.S. dollar is expected to receive support amid the upcoming key CPI data.
OCBC strategists described the latest U.S. employment report as "slightly supportive of the dollar, but insufficient for sustained growth." They note that strong employment data "confirm the resilience of the U.S. economy and support the likelihood of tighter Fed monetary policy, which could help limit the dollar's decline." However, given the "continued pressure on wages," OCBC analysts suggest that markets will need more convincing inflation data to more confidently forecast a rate hike in September.
Therefore, attention should turn to the CPI data, where a positive surprise could act as a catalyst for renewed dollar growth, while weaker-than-expected figures are likely to result in two-way price fluctuations.
In addition, the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran is supporting the geopolitical risk premium, helping maintain the dollar's stability as a safe-haven asset. In the latest developments related to the Middle East crisis, Iran threatened to retaliate against any new U.S. attacks on its assets, warning of the potential vulnerability of energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Moreover, Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei stated that Tehran is preparing for a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to economic sanctions, increasing concerns about the risk of prolonged disruptions to oil supplies.
Investors remain concerned that high energy prices could once again intensify inflationary pressures, supporting the outlook for tighter Fed policy. This, in turn, confirms the possibility of buying activity amid a decline in the dollar, requiring a more cautious approach from XAU/USD bulls. Therefore, it would be reasonable to wait for strong buying interest before making decisions to push gold prices significantly higher and continue its recovery.
From a technical perspective, the precious metal remains above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is located slightly above the round $4,300 level. This confirms a positive outlook for the near term, despite weakening momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 51 indicates a neutral-to-positive or moderately optimistic condition. Nevertheless, the MACD indicator near zero points to weakening upward pressure following the recent correction.
The technical picture is mixed, suggesting that gold may encounter initial resistance at the 20-day SMA. Support is expected at the 100-day SMA, followed by the 200-day EMA below it.
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