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On Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) is extending an intraday recovery after dipping to a weekly low, once again clearing the $4,400 mark. The precious metal appears to have ended a three-day losing streak, helped by USD weakness as the dollar trades near its lows and approaches the August trough amid yen strength triggered by Bank of Japan actions. However, expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks may cap substantial gains for the precious metal.
A 25 basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday is considered nearly certain. Market participants have also fully priced in a potential Bank of Japan rate move at the September 17–18 meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likewise seen as a candidate for near-term tightening. Meanwhile, the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, which beat expectations, again bolstered the prospects for a Fed rate hike in September amid inflation risks tied to elevated energy prices.
BNY strategists emphasize that the latest labor market data have strengthened expectations of further Fed tightening. They note, "After the exceptionally strong payrolls print on Friday, even ambiguous comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller on Thursday are unlikely to change our view that a rate hike is inevitable." BNY adds that "after a small dip last Thursday following Waller's remarks, the probability of a September hike has again risen above 60%. We would be surprised if it did not happen."
At the same time, the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran may limit a decline in the US dollar — a classic safe-haven — and restrain gold's upside. In response to recent events in the region, the US struck Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Khark Island. Iran then launched more than 30 rockets at US forces stationed at Al?Azraq base in Jordan. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has also warned that US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain could be targeted.
These developments keep the geopolitical risk premium relevant, pushing oil prices to three-month highs and raising inflation concerns.
For the best trading opportunities, wait for US inflation reports — the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday — to clarify the Fed's likely next steps before opening new XAU/USD positions.
From a technical perspective, the instrument is trading inside yesterday's range, finding support at the 100?day SMA and facing resistance at the round $4,400 level, above which the 20?day SMA will add resistance. Oscillators are close to neutral, indicating no clear near-term directional bias.
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