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On Tuesday, EUR/USD continued to trade under pressure as rising US Treasury yields support the dollar. Active sell-offs are absent, however: traders prefer not to take large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy decision expected on Wednesday.
At the time of writing, the pair traded around 1.1540, having earlier fallen to an intraday low near 1.1525; thus, it remains close to the lows seen in recent months.
As for macro data, recent non-critical US releases produced mixed results and did not materially move the pair. The four-week average of the ADP employment change rose from 12.25k to 16.25k, while the New York Empire State manufacturing index fell to 7.6 in September from 20.6, missing the 14.75 forecast.
On Tuesday, US Treasury yields across maturities hit multi-year highs. The benchmark 10-year yield reached 5.04% — the highest level since 2007 — before easing slightly back toward 5.0%.
The bond sell-off was largely driven by an energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict; euro-area 10-year yields also hit their highest level since 2009 at 3.51%. Rising oil prices increase inflationary pressure and strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the ECB has already hiked rates twice this year, taking the deposit rate to 2.50% and signaling readiness to tighten further.
Attention now focuses on the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The Fed is expected to deliver its first rate increase since 2023 as the energy shock has stalled disinflation and kept inflation above the 2% target. According to CME FedWatch, traders price in roughly a 92% probability of a 25 bp hike on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.60, up about 0.11% on the day and close to a two-week high. Because a quarter-point hike is largely priced in, a surprise decision to hold could trigger a sharp drop in the dollar and Treasury yields, allowing EUR/USD to resume a recovery. Conversely, a hike accompanied by hawkish forecasts and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could spark a fresh wave of selling in EUR/USD.
Technically, the pair has shown resilience below the 50-day SMA, leaving a chance for the bulls. Oscillators are mixed, and the RSI has moved into negative territory, indicating bull weakness. If bulls can push price above the 100-day SMA and the 200-day EMA, the pair might remain range-bound. Failure to hold the 50-day SMA would accelerate the decline toward 1.1500.
Below is a table showing Tuesday's percentage change in the US dollar against major currencies. The dollar's largest gain was against the Japanese yen.
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