16.09.202604:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on September 16? Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of macroeconomic releases:

Several macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Wednesday. First and foremost is the UK inflation report, which will influence the Bank of England's sentiment tomorrow and for the rest of the year. If inflation rises, the BoE will be forced to respond with tighter monetary policy. However, the market may not pay attention to this report, since the Federal Reserve meeting will take place in the evening and is obviously more important than the BoE meeting. Also today the euro-area industrial-production report and US retail-sales data will be released, but the market is unlikely to notice them much.

Review of fundamental events:

Among Wednesday's fundamental events, the Fed meeting, the dot-plot projections and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference stand out. The market does not doubt a September rate hike, but it has already priced in that decision. Therefore, in the near term, the dollar's path will depend on Warsh's commentary and the dot-plot projections. Recall that the dot plot reflects FOMC members' expectations for the policy rate over the next three years. With Warsh's remarks, it will be important to understand whether the Fed intends to start a full tightening cycle or will limit itself to a one-off precautionary hike.

The geopolitical backdrop remains poor. The US and Iran are not negotiating at present; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia and actively attack its facilities. Donald Trump has proposed an unprecedented economic operation to "destroy" Iran and threatened sanctions against any countries that interact with it. So far, no one has supported Trump's plan to destroy Iran, and whether it will be implemented is unknown. The conflict continues, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is under threat of blockade, and oil prices are rising.

General conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, currency pairs will likely come under pressure again. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1527–1.1531 area, and the pound from the 1.3456–1.3476 area. The downward correction in the euro and the pound may be completed this week, since traders have essentially already priced in the Fed's "hawkish" decision.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.