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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US currency versus a basket of other major currencies, eased slightly after reaching a late-July high. Nevertheless, the index remains above the psychologically important 100.00 mark. Several factors, however, set the stage for buyers to step in and accumulate on dips.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on inflation helped temper the recent sell-off in fixed-income markets, leading to a moderate retreat in US yields and prompting dollar bulls to take some profits. Yet the Fed's hawkish stance combined with escalating tensions in the Middle East is likely to continue supporting the dollar and limit DXY losses.
At its September meeting on Wednesday, the Fed unanimously voted to raise rates by 25 basis points — the first move of its kind in 2026. The updated dot-plot showed Fed officials expect at least one more hike this year. The decision comes amid inflation concerns driven by higher oil prices and reinforces expectations of further Fed tightening, which should primarily support the DXY.
Danske Bank analysts note the Fed "unanimously moved to raise by 25 bps, and the updated projections were modestly more hawkish than the market expected." They emphasize that Chair Warsh "still views policy as supportive of growth," underscoring the Fed's stance that it can tighten policy while remaining broadly supportive.
Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi rebels said Saudi aviation carried out more than 450 strikes in Yemen over the past week. US President Donald Trump said Iran seeks a deal and that the war may be nearing an end. Nonetheless, the escalation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continues to sustain a geopolitical risk premium, which is positive for DXY bulls.
Today traders should wait for key US economic releases — including the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, weekly initial jobless claims and housing data — scheduled during the North American session. Developments in the Middle East will also influence dollar dynamics and create short-term trading opportunities within a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Technically, DXY retains a bullish bias after its recent break above the 100-day SMA. Immediate resistance sits at 100.35. Support is at the round 100.00 level and the lower 100-day SMA. Oscillators are mixed, but the RSI is positive, indicating bulls have gathered enough strength for further upside.
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