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EUR/USD is trying to find its footing, but it feels like the ground is slipping away. Escalating political risks in France and Germany, combined with the Fed's determination to bring inflation back to its 2% target at almost any cost to the US economy, create a heavy burden for the major currency pair.
Speculators' dollar positioning dynamics
Hedge funds and asset managers were caught off guard by Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone at the post-FOMC press conference. Before that, speculators had cut dollar long positions for seven consecutive weeks. Now they have been forced to reverse course. JP Morgan notes that, before the meeting, the greenback was undervalued by about 2–4%; trading has since turned into a catch-up game.
Bank of America points out that the Committee's statement dropped language suggesting inflation was partly supply?driven. That signals the Fed's intent to throw its full weight at high prices. As a result, the bank keeps a tightening forecast not only for December but also for October. Goldman Sachs shares a similar view.
Their stance looks logical against comments from Austan Goolsbee. The Chicago Fed president said supply shocks have lasted longer and had larger effects than expected. Given that, the Fed must act decisively even if rate hikes inflict pain on the US economy.
When a central bank sees no political constraint, it can tighten policy with a clear conscience. The ECB faces a different backdrop: a Damoclean sword of political risk in Germany and France, as well as the looming threat of an energy crisis. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's approval is plunging after his party lost elections in two regions. In one race, the CDU failed to clear the 5% threshold, finishing at just 4.9% and missing parliamentary representation; in the other, it ceded ground to the left.
Regional election results
France is no less volatile, where the government proudly proclaimed plans to cut the budget deficit, while the opposition in parliament has already forced several prime ministers from office. Another resignation is looming, pushing French and German sovereign spreads to levels not seen since the European debt crisis in 2012.
Saudi Arabia warned the EU that it cannot meet some delivery agreements because the East-West pipeline is closed. That raises the risk of a revived energy crisis and adds pressure on the euro.
Technically, the daily chart shows that EUR/USD has formed an inside bar. A break above the high of 1.1495 would increase the risk of a rebound and justify short-term buying. Failure by the bulls to do so, along with a break below $1.1455, would be a reason to sell.
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