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The USD/JPY pair is attracting buyer interest despite the Bank of Japan's expected Friday increase in short-term policy rates to the highest levels in 31 years, and its confirmation that rates may be raised further depending on activity, price dynamics and financial conditions. The decision was not unanimous — a 7–2 split — indicating internal disagreements among board members. Those divisions, together with data showing some disinflation in Japan in August, reduced expectations for a more aggressive tightening cycle, which in turn weighs on the yen and helps push USD/JPY higher.
At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East and an increased risk of a large-scale regional conflict support the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and lift the pair.
Among recent headlines are Iran-backed Houthi claims of missile and drone strikes on key targets in Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh. Iran also put forward seven conditions for resuming talks with the US, which continues to sustain a geopolitical risk premium.
The US dollar receives additional support from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which points to the possibility of another rate hike this year.
Nevertheless, the upside potential for USD/JPY remains limited because Friday's BOJ actions prompted market checks that sparked rumors of a potential new currency intervention. Traders await developments in the Middle East crisis and the outcome of the important meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for Thursday before opening new positions.
Technically, USD/JPY is currently trading below the 200-day EMA, which provides significant resistance. A decisive break above that zone would open the way to gains toward 158.50 and the 200-day SMA, which would offer further resistance. On the downside, the nearest support is at 156.60.
The table below shows the yen's percentage moves versus major currencies over the past 7 days. The Japanese yen strengthened most against the New Zealand dollar.
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