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The GBP/USD pair continued its downward move on Thursday and, despite its resilience, fell to 1.3180 by the end of the day. Recall that roughly at the current mark lies the lower boundary of two sideways channels on the daily and weekly timeframes. So a near-term upward reversal in the British pound is quite likely. Unfortunately, the market continues to ignore virtually all factors that could support the pound and keeps buying the dollar aggressively. Thus, technical guidance is not the main driver at the moment. Today, the US will release key labor and unemployment reports, and if they come in more positive than traders expect, the dollar will continue to rise calmly. Everything today will depend on macroeconomic data, but the market is predisposed to further dollar purchases. The downtrend remains relevant, but the dollar cannot rise forever either. At present, we are inclined to believe that capital outflows drive the dollar's rise from bond markets in the Eurozone, the US, and the UK. Government bond yields continue to hit multi-year highs.
On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, two trading signals were formed. During the European session, price bounced off the 1.3259–1.3267 area, allowing novice traders to open straightforward short positions; by the end of the day, the nearest target area, 1.3175–1.3180, was reached. A bounce from that area allowed opening long positions, but so far those trades have not yielded any profit.
On the hourly TF, GBP/USD continues a downward trend that has become a full-fledged, powerful move. The fundamental backdrop for the dollar has improved because the Federal Reserve indicated it is ready to continue tightening monetary policy. Two weeks have passed since then, and the market still keeps buying the dollar. Therefore, we strongly doubt that Fed monetary policy alone explains this. We consider the current movement completely illogical.
On Friday, novice traders can consider short positions with targets of 1.3096–1.3107 if the price consolidates below the 1.3175–1.3180 area. Open long positions with targets of 1.3259–1.3267 if price bounces off the 1.3175–1.3180 area.
On the 5-minute TF you can trade the levels 1.3043, 1.3096–1.3107, 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641. No important events or publications are scheduled in the UK for Friday, while the US will release the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls and labor market reports. These releases can trigger a new dollar rally or a powerful correction.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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