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Gold (XAU/USD) remains below the $4200 level as traders await the release of US labor market data. According to forecasts, the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show an increase of 90,000 jobs, below the August figure of 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Important data on annual wage growth, based on average hourly earnings, could also provide new signals regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions, especially amid easing expectations for an interest-rate hike in October. This, in turn, will affect the US dollar exchange rate and could provide a significant impulse for gold.
Influential members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently expressed the view that there is no need for an immediate interest-rate hike after the rate was raised by 25 basis points in September. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Thursday that economic activity in the US manufacturing sector had increased for the ninth consecutive month.
Additional surveys show that commodity prices have been rising for 24 months. These factors are increasing concerns about inflation driven by fluctuations in energy prices, supporting expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening and limiting the decline in US Treasury yields observed the previous day. The situation between the United States and Iran also continues to support the US dollar and acts as a limiting factor for commodity assets.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon may soon deploy a third carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf, along with an additional 10,000 sailors and Marines. In addition, Iran's Persian Gulf Straits Affairs Authority (PGSA) reported recent incidents involving attacks on several tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that he would soon make a decision on the possibility of "destroying Iran," adding that the war would end very soon, regardless of the circumstances.
This creates a high geopolitical risk premium and supports dollar bulls, so gold buyers should exercise caution. Therefore, it would be reasonable to wait for clear signals before opening long positions rather than concluding that gold has found a short-term bottom around $4100 and is ready for a significant rise.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a short-term "bearish" trend, trading below all key moving averages. The oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage. Resistance is provided by the round $4200 level. Gold finds support slightly above the round $4100 level. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance is currently to the downside.
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