06.10.202609:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What Signal Is Gold Waiting For

Gold remains above 4,120, although that level has been tested many times recently. Silver holds near $61.05, platinum slipped slightly, and palladium ticked up. However, the metal still trades below two key medium-term moving averages, and buyers have yet to find a reason to return.

The main pressure comes from the FX market. The dollar approached this year's high on Monday, and the DXY stayed near its level after four consecutive weeks of gains. The trigger was euro weakness following the sell-off in French bonds, prompting traders to watch for signs of contagion elsewhere in the region. A strong dollar usually hurts dollar-priced commodities, and gold is no exception. Importantly, safe-haven flows are going into the dollar rather than into the metal: in past crises gold attracted flows, but now the US currency is the winner.

The second factor is yields. US Treasury bonds came under new pressure and long-term yields hit 24-year highs. Gold pays no interest, so rising yields increase its opportunity cost of holding — the most unpleasant channel for the metal. The ISM services report added fuel to inflation worries: costs in US services rose the most in over four years.

Federal Reserve rate bets have changed little. Officials say an immediate hike is unlikely, and the market prices roughly a one-in-four chance of a move at the October meeting. On the eve of the report, the probability was nearer 20%, so the odds ticked up rather than down. For gold, this means that even if the Fed speaks mildly, relief will be delayed. The minutes of the September meeting — where the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years — are due Wednesday and should reveal how wide the split inside the committee is.

The backdrop remains heavy. Gold fell more than 6% in September on fears of energy-driven inflation, rate-hike expectations and dollar strength. Since the US–Iran conflict reignited in late February, the metal has lost over a fifth of its value. Yet year-end forecasts remain high — Goldman Sachs at 4,900 and Citigroup at 4,800. For those scenarios to play out, we need lower yields and a weaker dollar, and so far neither is visible.

My view: the next sessions should have a downward bias, and any bounces will be short-lived while the dollar and yields remain high. If the minutes prove hawkish and the euro keeps weakening over France, gold will likely test July lows near 4,000. A meaningful reversal would require a dovish minutes release, falling yields and a sustained drop in oil — a combination we do not have now, so I expect continued pressure on the metal.

Technically, buyers must hold the 4,124 area and reclaim resistance at 4,186. That would open a path to 4,249, above which a breakout becomes difficult; the furthest target is 4,304. On the downside, bears will try to seize 4,124. If they succeed, a range break would seriously damage bull positions and push gold toward 4,062, with a prospect of reaching 4,047.