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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is extending its advance. Moreover, the favorable fundamental backdrop is creating buy-the-dip conditions, meaning that traders seeking aggressive short positions should exercise caution.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15–16, published on Wednesday, showed unanimous committee support for raising the federal funds target range. Most Fed officials also signaled that another rate hike by year-end is possible to fight persistent inflation. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders put the odds of a Fed rate increase in December at roughly 80%. Additional concern stems from inflation proving more persistent than expected amid volatile energy prices, which keeps US Treasury yields elevated near multi-year highs. Dollar strength, therefore, rests on energy price dynamics and the faster pace of US economic growth.
"Bottom line, persistently high energy prices keep risks to inflation, policy rates, and benchmark bond yields skewed to the upside, while favoring energy exporters' currencies and USD over energy importers' currencies," Brown Brothers Harriman strategists noted. They added, "US growth outperformance and strong foreign appetite for US securities give USD an added boost," supporting the bank's bullish outlook on the currency versus energy-importing nations. Furthermore, instability from the current Middle East conflict continues to underpin the dollar's safe-haven status.
Latest reports indicate that the Pentagon recently asked US Central Command (CENTCOM) to complete planning for a potential resumption of major operations against Iran, while US President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing setting a specific timeframe for strikes. Sources in the US and Israel say this could occur before the US midterms and one week ahead of Israel's elections. That keeps the geopolitical risk premium relevant and should support further gains in the DXY.
Therefore, confirming a peak in the index and preparing for a corrective move lower would require substantial selling.
For better trading opportunities, wait for weekly initial jobless claims data in the US. That release, together with speeches by influential FOMC members, could meaningfully move the dollar. Political developments may continue to spur volatility in global financial markets, creating short-term trading opportunities for the DXY. However, current market trends clearly tilt sentiment toward bulls.
Technically, DXY maintains a bullish bias, trading above all key moving averages. Oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' edge, although the relative strength index is overbought, signaling consolidation. Support is at 102.00. Resistance is at 102.50. The path of least resistance is upward, with a risk of corrective pullbacks.
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