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The NZD/USD pair closed into the weekend just above the round 0.5605 level, up roughly 0.06% on the day, but remains broadly consolidating near a monthly low.
The New Zealand dollar has received some support from improved market sentiment driven by a temporary pullback in US Treasury yields and lower oil prices. However, continued US dollar strength limits the pair's upside potential.
Risk appetite improved after Thursday's successful $22bn auction of 30-year US Treasuries, which drew strong investor interest. The auction helped push yields down, easing pressure on risk-sensitive currencies, including the kiwi.
At the same time, oil prices fell after President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the US does not plan to strike Iran before the midterms in November. Those remarks temporarily eased geopolitical tensions that followed earlier reports of possible US military action against Tehran.
That said, improved risk sentiment is fragile. Oil remains elevated, keeping inflation risks front of mind and underpinning expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
The US dollar index (DXY) returned to about 102.22 on Friday.
The 10-year Treasury yield recovered to 5.27% after briefly dipping to 5.22%. US monetary policy prospects remain the main obstacle to a sustainable NZD/USD rally. According to CME FedWatch, markets now largely expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct. 27–28 while pricing roughly an 85% chance of another 25 bp hike in December.
For New Zealand, pressure on the kiwi continues because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy path diverges from the Fed's. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps its official cash rate (OCR) at 2.75%, well below the Fed's policy rate. That rate gap favors the US dollar and reduces the New Zealand dollar's relative appeal.
Westpac analysts expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 2.75% in October, then hike 25 bp in December, with possibly two more hikes in early 2027. Those forecasts imply a slower tightening cycle in New Zealand than in the US, which limits NZD/USD upside.
Technically, on the weekly chart, the pair found support around 0.5580 — a break below that would accelerate declines toward the June low. Resistance sits near 0.5630; a clean break would give bulls a chance to reach the round 0.5700 level. Oscillators are negative, confirming the sellers' advantage. The path of least resistance remains downward.
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