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On Tuesday, the EUR/GBP pair gave up some of its earlier gains: budgetary and political uncertainty in France limits the euro's upside potential. At the same time, technical signals still point to sellers' advantage. At the time of writing, the cross trades near its June 2025 lows.
ING analysts have become more positive on the pound sterling's prospects. The bank said it revised its EUR/GBP forecast down and now expects the pair to remain in the 0.84–0.85 range at least for the coming months. Analysts say euro-specific risks are unlikely to disappear soon, while the Bank of England has clearly signaled readiness to raise interest rates, creating a supportive backdrop for the pound.
ING also notes that the UK budget scheduled for October 28 could become a potential source of pressure on the pound. The market has not priced in significant risks related to the country's fiscal policy so far. At the same time, the bank believes Chancellor John Healey and Prime Minister Andy Burnham understand the markets' sensitivity to budget decisions. Therefore, despite market attention to the document, ING analysts do not expect a sharp rise in government-bond volatility or prolonged negative impact on the pound.
For better trading opportunities, it is worth waiting for UK GDP data for August on Thursday and final eurozone CPI for September on Friday. These releases, along with speeches by European Central Bank and BoE officials during the week, could amplify the pair's fluctuations in the coming days.
From a technical standpoint, because the pair trades below all major moving averages,this confirms a bearish structure. The pair found support at 0.8443 and faced resistance at 0.8460. Oscillators are negative, indicating an advantage for bears. But the relative-strength index is oversold, suggesting either a correction or bearish consolidation. The path of least resistance for the pair remains downward.
The table below shows the euro's percentage changes against major currencies for Tuesday. The euro posted its largest strengthening against the US dollar.
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