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Bitcoin and Ether continue the correction they had been preparing for weeks. Recall that the last two major developments for the crypto world were more negative than positive. Central banks (notably the Fed) have begun tightening monetary policy, which raises demand for safe assets rather than for Bitcoin. The Clarity Act remains just a bill. If Democrats win control of Congress, there is a real chance the bill will never become law. Thus, the fundamentals for further crypto market upside look dubious.
Meanwhile, Peter Schiff, head of investment firm Euro Pacific Capital, again criticized Bitcoin and compared it with gold. Recall that Mr Schiff has repeatedly argued that traditional gold has several advantages over Bitcoin and that "digital gold" will eventually collapse. Now Mr. Schiff said ordinary gold has a much better chance of delivering tenfold gains in the coming years than "digital." The investor also said Bitcoin could fall sharply again. The only thing keeping it afloat now is investor demand. He reminded listeners that gold has intrinsic value and physical utility, unlike cryptocurrencies. Precious metals will continue to rise over time as sovereign debts increase worldwide and inflation erodes trust in governments and the purchasing power of fiat currencies.
Mr Schiff also noted that central banks use gold as a reserve, unlike Bitcoin, and that gold's value does not depend on short-term market swings and trends. We remind you that Bitcoin remains a high risk, highly volatile investment vehicle for most market participants, nothing more. In plain terms, Bitcoin can increase capital quickly, which attracts many investors. However, Bitcoin's growth rate slows over time, so a tenfold rise is not something to expect—even assuming perpetual growth of the money supply.
Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:
Bitcoin shows signs of the start of a new bull trend. This trend begins, as is often the case, with a pump that has no concrete, clear reasons. The Fed has not started cutting rates, and the Clarity Act was not adopted. In the near term on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may be in decline, since the price reacted to a bearish FVG and generated two sell signals. Also note that the current breakout beyond the daily sideways channel may be a deviation. Yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin could head to $70,800 and even preserve the downtrend that began last year. We believe short positions are most relevant in the near term. On the 4-hour timeframe, be careful near the upper boundary of the sideways channel—a deviation may form and the decline may resume.
Trading recommendations for ETH/USD:
On the daily timeframe the technical picture for Ether has changed completely. Now the Ether is oriented toward a new uptrend. However, bulls can rely only on the weekly chart, where Ether has set a course for $4,800, the upper boundary of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily timeframe the first bearish FVG did not prompt a noticeable price reaction, but Bitcoin reacted to its own FVGs, and recall that Ether's price depends on Bitcoin's by roughly 80–90%. Bitcoin began to correct, and Ether also plunged. Thus, in the near term, we expect declines (as before). Ether targets are around $2,300 and lower, down to $1,850. On the daily timeframe, Ether received a sell signal from the nearest FVG. Liquidity removal warns of a pause in the decline or a possible end to the downward correction.
Explanations for the illustrations:
CHOCH—change of character, break of trend structure.
Liquidity—liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders that market makers use to build positions.
FVG—fair value gap, an area of price inefficiency. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later prices tend to return and react to these areas in the direction of the main trend.
IFVG — inverted fair value gap. After a return to such an area, Price receives no reaction and impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.
OB — order block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to capture liquidity and form a position in the opposite direction.
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