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EUR/USD traded sideways on Monday. As of Tuesday morning, the pair is trading above the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1220, allowing for a potential rise toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1325. Consolidation below 1.1220 would favor the US dollar and a further decline toward the 1.1081–1.1086 support level.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening this year and another next year. This factor continues to provide the strongest support for the US dollar, while other factors have yet to become relevant. The bears are gaining momentum, which is also helping the dollar strengthen.
There was no significant news on Monday, so the pair showed no notable movements throughout the day. The economic calendar is relatively light this week, with the most interesting reports scheduled for release in the United Kingdom. The euro and the dollar will have little new data to support their movements. Meanwhile, traders have already begun shifting their attention to the upcoming ECB and Fed meetings, which could support the bulls. It is worth recalling that the ECB has already tightened monetary policy twice and will most likely do so a third and fourth time. The Fed is currently expected to tighten monetary policy twice, with the second move not due until December. Therefore, given the euro's decline over the past month and the ECB's more hawkish approach to interest rates, the euro could continue the recovery that began last week. Today, the market may focus on the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, but these are not the most important indicators and are unlikely to influence the ECB's stance ahead of its penultimate meeting of the year.
On the 4-hour chart, following the formation of a fifth bullish divergence, the pair reversed in favor of the euro once again and rose toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1221. Consolidation above this level would allow for a rise toward 1.1325. Consolidation below 1.1221 would favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No developing divergences are evident today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 20,091 Long positions and opened 18,150 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 360,000. The bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more often than it is bought. This is attributable to the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's determination to bring inflation down. The market continues to believe that inflation will be reduced to 2% by any available means.
Overall, major market participants remain strongly interested in the euro over the long term. Events of various kinds around the world—which have been plentiful in recent years—undoubtedly influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unforeseen events. As a result, traders can only adapt to the changing environment as it unfolds.
Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On October 20, the economic calendar contains four releases, all of medium importance. The impact of economic data on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be limited.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Buying the pair is possible if it closes above 1.1220 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1325. Selling is possible if the pair closes below 1.1220, with a target in the 1.1081–1.1086 support level.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.
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