22.10.202609:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil Rises After Attacks in Saudi Arabia, Diplomacy Still Absent

Oil is rising again. Deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia have heightened supply concerns despite accelerated exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent trades around $111 a barrel, and WTI is approaching $100.

According to the latest reports, a drone struck the Saudi Aramco Shaybah field, killing two workers, though output was not affected. Another attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one person. Against this backdrop, the U.S. ordered the evacuation of some embassy staff and their families from the kingdom.

Note that Brent has risen more than 80% since the start of the year. Flows from the Persian Gulf were disrupted by the U.S.–Iran war, which is approaching its ninth month with no sign of resolution. At the same time, crude shipments recently increased and are close to pre-war levels, as tankers turn off transponders to avoid detection.

Official data on U.S. inventories was also released yesterday: crude stocks fell by just over 3 million barrels, another 300,000 barrels were withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and distillate inventories rose by almost 2 million barrels, slightly easing diesel and fuel-oil markets.

However, the Middle East remains the main factor. Iran in recent weeks has stepped up attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran-linked Houthis frequently strike Saudi Arabia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported strikes on four oil tankers during ship-to-ship transfers in the northern Persian Gulf; the timing of the attacks was not specified. The New York Times reported that the U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for new strikes on Iran after the U.S. midterms.

Meanwhile, a tanker carrying about 40,000 tonnes (roughly 300,000 barrels) of Russian diesel is due to sail to the U.S. on Thursday under Trump's deal with Moscow. However, ongoing fighting and the risk of renewed escalation after the elections keep prices from falling, and the market is struggling to sustain a new bull run. All this suggests oil remains in a high-price zone, and rising exports and Washington's price-reduction policies do not yet outweigh military risks. While diplomacy is absent, Brent will hold near $110.

As for the current technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $101. That would set up a target at $105, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farthest target is the $109 area. In case of a decline, bears will try to seize control of $98. If that succeeds, a range breakout would deal a severe blow to bulls' positions and push Oil to a $95 low with a prospect of extending to $92.