22.10.202611:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Declining US Treasury Yields Fail to Support a Gold Recovery

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure, with attempts to recover proving unsuccessful, as it trades below the $4,100 level.

The US dollar remains under pressure following recent statements by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, who indicated that there is no urgent need to raise interest rates at the October 27–28 meeting. At the same time, US Treasury yields continue to decline after reaching multi-year highs, limiting the dollar's upward potential and providing some support for the precious metal.

Meanwhile, US inflation data released last week strengthened expectations of a near-term tightening of Fed policy. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants assign a 90% probability to the US central bank raising borrowing costs in December. Furthermore, persistent inflation risks, exacerbated by volatile oil prices, leave room for further monetary policy tightening by the Fed. This continues to weigh on gold. At the same time, geopolitical tensions could limit the decline in the US dollar, which serves as a safe-haven asset, and constrain gains in precious metal prices.

Commenting on recent developments in the Middle East, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that Tehran remains open to diplomatic engagement but is also prepared to defend itself. According to Araghchi, there is currently little reason to expect progress, as the United States has not demonstrated a willingness to reach a mutual understanding. In addition, The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel had prepared plans for a short but intensive military operation against Iran following the US midterm elections. This factor supports the US dollar bulls.

Meanwhile, XAU/USD appears to have consolidated below the psychologically important $4,100 level, increasing the risk of further declines.

Today, Thursday, traders should wait for the release of US initial jobless claims data and the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings on Friday to identify better trading opportunities. These releases could provide a fresh catalyst for XAU/USD. However, the main focus should remain on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for next week.

From a technical perspective, the daily XAU/USD chart retains a bearish outlook, with prices trading below all key moving averages. Oscillators are in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. Support is provided by October's low at $4,065. Resistance near $4,155, where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is located, is preventing the bulls from gaining an opportunity to extend the recovery.