04.05.201215:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for May 4, 2012

Análisis a largo plazo

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4Н

General situation:
Analyzing the USD/JPY on May 4 we can see that the rate is fixed above the Kijun-Sen resulting in formation of buyers signal though quite weak one. This signal does not allow opening long positions. The current signal for Buy-deals is not confirmed and weak, as the Chinkou Span is located above the price chart and the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. That is why the target for possible ascending movement is seen near the Ichimoku Cloud. In case traders reach this level, the Senkou Span B will be considered as the next target. It is recommended to start bullish trade after the strengthening of the buyers signal, i.e. when the price is fixed above the Ichimoku Cloud. The ascending movement remains relevant as long as the price is located above the Kijun-Sen (80.10). Below this line it is recommended to place the Stop Loss for bullish trade. The signal for Buy-deals will weaken in case the price is fixed below this line. Chinkou Span is lower than the price chart but it does not confirm the current signal for Buy-deals and indicates the bearish mood on the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands shows the possible start of the ascending movement; lines are expanding and directed upwards, so long positions are relevant. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current corrective movement. It is recommended to refrain from opening long positions anyway, as the signal for Buy-deals is very weak.

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/JPY market it is recommended to consider buy positions but only when the price is fixed above the Ichimoku Cloud which is far from that. In case the Cloud is passed through, it will be possible to open long positions with 81.23 seen as target. Stop Loss is to be placed below the 80.10 level and while this line goes higher Stop Loss can be placed upwards. While opening long positions MACD should be directed to the upside. When the price passes 30-40 pips to the required side, Stop Loss is to be places into the non-loss area. Take Profits can be set around the 81.15 level.
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow linesMACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

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