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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.
In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.
Again in February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.
That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (see the monthly candlesticks of May and June).
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.
On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on the medium-term (low probability).
Similar to what happened in October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 constituted a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.
Later on May 18, daily persistence below the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1200 was needed to ensure enough bearish momentum towards the 1.1100 and 1.1000 levels. However, a lack of bearish pressure was manifested on June 1.
Hence, the recent bullish closure above 1.1200 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1400 where evident signs of bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were previously suggested. That's why, obvious bearish breakout of 1.1200 level took place on June 16
However, evident bullish rejection around 1.1130 (depicted uptrend line) brought the EUR/USD pair above 1.1200 again.
As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the zone of 1.1400 offered a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish according to the monthly chart. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.
On July 8, recent bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range), but on July 15 significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1150.
This week, bearish fixation below 1.1000 allows a quick decline towards 1.0820 (key level 2) where price action should be watched.
On the other hand, if the EUR/USD pair keeps trading above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range), further advance towards 1.1100,1.1170 and 1.1220 should be expected.
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