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It looks like yesterday investors intended to buy irrespective of Mario Dragi's speech. German Factory Orders in April dropped 2.3% vs. forecast for a 1.0% drop and a 2.3% growth in March, meanwhile the euro added 50 points. Later, during the ECB press conference the ECB president Mario Draghi did not say anything positive except for the traditional “the ECB is ready to act if needed”. Meanwhile, the bank cut the forecast for GDP in 2013 to -0.6% and the rate of inflation from 1.6% to 1.4%. Usually such speeches force the euro to drop. However, it is still unknown why the euro rose 200 points yesterday. The simplest explanation is stop losses of sellers. The volumes of purchases were very high and in the current situation one could opt for a speculative operation being sure of future mid-term growth. On the other hand, it could be a coordinated measure taken by the major investors which has not been seen for a long.
If we consider the official explanation of the growth – optimism which was expressed due to the ECB postpones trimming of the key rate, then we may consider that the new is not relevant anymore.
Technically, the conditions to build a new mid-term trend were formed, on the daily chart Marlin oscillator is in positive zone, the price has overcome balance line (red sliding), the Kruzenshtern line (blue sliding) starts its reverse movement upwards, the price has overcome a meaningful level of the high from May 1 (1.3242) and probably, the euro will be trading in the range of thick trend lines before final move upwards. However, the answer for this question can be given only on June 19 when the Fed takes decision about further monetary policy.
Today at 10:00 GMT+4 Trade Balance in Germany in April is published, forecast 16.5 billion euros vs. 17.6 billion euros in March. At 14:00 GMT+4 Industrial Production in Germany in April is issued, forecast 0.0% vs. 1.2% in March. At 16:30 GMT+4 the major event for today is revealed, Nonfarm Payrolls in May is issued, forecast 167K vs. 165K in April. However, due to weak data on employment in the private sector published on Wednesday (135K vs. forecast for 165K), the forecast for Payrolls was revised to 120K-140K. If data is weak, the euro preserves the positions, if the data is better, we expect the euro drops.
Technically, it is simpler for the price to move upwards to the yesterday's high, it is broken, the first target is the level of Fibonacci on the H4 61.8% at the price level 1.3338. However, expected weak European data rather directs the price to brake the level of Fibonacci 50% (1.3226) to the support level of 1.3186. If the price consolidates under the level, the correction may strengthen to 1.3114.
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