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27.03.2023: FSOC fails to abate market concerns; USD hesitant to pick up trajectory.
Vistas:
On March 23, the greenback dropped below the psychologically important level of 102. However, since then, it has managed to recover to 103.
Today, it is trading without a clear-cut trend due to market uncertainty, which we have just discussed. It needs new drivers, for example, fresh macro stats. There will be some crucial data later this week.
In the meantime, the US currency is hovering in a narrow range of 103.0-103.3. The US dollar index touched 103.1 in the Asian session, showing moderate growth. To cement the bullish trend, the greenback needs to break above the resistance level of 103.5.
However, it will hardly be able to climb markedly in the near future, especially given the declining US government bonds. A fall in Treasuries usually boosts the Japanese currency. The latter remains weak due to the BoJ’s ultra-dovish monetary policy.
Yet, its appeal as a safe-haven asset is higher as traders know what to expect from the Bank of Japan. Besides, inflation in Japan decreased. The yen also advanced amid hints from Fed policymakers about a pause in the tightening cycle. It means that the rate gap between the banks could narrow.
Last Friday, the yen approached a 7-week high of 129.6. On Monday morning, the dollar/yen pair quoted at 130.9 due to a rise in the US dollar. However, technical indicators signal a further decline in the pair to the range of 130.4-131.4.
At the same time, any increase may again trigger a downward movement. The bears are now aiming at 131. Long positions may push the pair to 132. This afternoon, the economic calendar is empty. So, the pair will remain vulnerable to news on the banking sector and comments from Fed officials.
The AUD/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias. However, on Monday, the Aussie tried to recoup its weekly losses, moving in the channel of 0.6636-0.6667. It was able to rise slightly. However, the bullish momentum was rather weak. The bulls only managed to push it above 0.6651.
If there is a breakout of the 0.6900 level, which is still unlikely, bulls could regain control. The mixed sentiment in the US stock market is exerting pressure on the Aussie. As a reminder, it has a high correlation with Wall Street. It has already dipped below a two-week support level of 0.6660.
Over the past four months, AUD/USD has hit several support levels in the range of 0.6640-0.6630. Each of them may become a hard nut to crack for sellers. So, it will not be easy for bears to push the pair lower.
The New Zealand dollar also added gains. It reached 0.6204 after its recent fall to 0.6187. On early Monday, the kiwi made an attempt to recoup its early losses. It was trading in the bullish price corridor of 0.6187-0.6213.
00:00 Intro
00:20 Traders rushed to sell off the shares of top European banks
01:17 Janet Yellen
02:00 NEIL KASHKARI
02:21 CME FEDWATCH TOOL
03:09 USDX
04:16 USD/JPY
05:48 AUD/USD
06:59 NZD/USD
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