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Quotes from Societe Generale:
- While the national CPI measure grew by 0.5% yoy from 0.7% yoy, French HICP inflation slowed from 0.8% yoy to 0.6% yoy in June (consensus and SG: 0.8%). This is the slowest pace of HICP inflation since November 2009. The main culprits were fresh food prices and the earlier summer sales period.
- Looking ahead, we expect French HICP inflation to quicken pace slightly, hovering around 0.8% until the end of the year. We also expect fresh food prices to exert some upward pressure over the summer, while the combination of a slightly lower EUR/USD rate and higher Brent oil prices in USD should lead to a positive contribution from energy prices from Q4 14. On average, we expect French HICP inflation to print at 0.8% yoy this year and 1.3% yoy in 2015 - a subdued pace, reflecting a very mild economic recovery.
- Following the release of the French inflation report, Bank of France governor Christian Noyer suggested reducing the return rate of the Livret A savings account from the historically low 1.25% to 0.75% from 1 August, even though the formula points to an even lower rate of 0.5%. Yet, the finance minister, Michel Sapin, opted for a rate of return of 1% in order to protect the purchasing power of the French savers.
