02.06.201611:44:00UTC+00Us Retail Sales Unlikely to See another Material Gain in May

U.S. retail sales in April recorded their biggest increase in a year as Americans stepped up purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods. Retails sales for May is unlikely to see another material gain – let alone one like the last print. Poor retails sales print could matter as it would dampen enthusiasm toward the consumer sector.

US vehicle sales were essentially flat in May (+0.3% m/m). Given that the dollar value of auto sales and parts equals about 20% of the dollar value of total retail sales, flat auto sales volumes suggest that a sizeable portion of the report won’t carry the same kind of upward momentum as the prior month.

The overall pace of sales has been slowing since auto makers notched a string of extraordinary gains in late 2015. May’s seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate, or SAAR, was 17.45 million vehicles, a healthy number by historic standards, but well behind the pace set in May 2015 and short of the 18 million-plus level set late last year.

"A fairly large 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales excluding both autos and gasoline station sales during April may make it difficult to post continued growth in May." notes Scotiabank in a report.